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[09/24/12 - 04:17 PM] The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season, Part 1: Only 32% of Network Shows Make It to a Second Season By Brian Ford Sullivan (TFC) |
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1) Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
2) Shows that premiere in September have the best chance of survival.
3) Scripted and unscripted shows fail at the same rate.
4) Friday night is indeed the "death slot."
5) 10 o'clock is just as successful as any other time period.
6) 5% of shows that are announced don't even air.
7) 4% of broadcast series have changed networks.
8) New shows on average lose 14% of their audience by episode two.
9) Cable dramas are almost twice as likely to return as broadcast ones.
10) History is on the side of the majority of this fall's new shows.
Please note: As a courtesy, please do not reproduce these comments to newsgroups, forums or other online places. Links only please.
Welcome once again to "The 10 Things You Need to Know About the New Season," our recurring feature about, well... the 10 things you need to know about the new season. The goal of this venture is to address not only common questions people have about television but to also demystify (or potentially reaffirm) stigmas out there about certain networks, time periods, genres and so forth. It's been a few years so we'll revisit some of our previous research as well as dig into some new areas we haven't touched on before.
So with that in mind let us put on our journalistic caps and give you the cold, hard truth about what's potentially ahead for some of your favorite new and returning shows...
1. Only 32% of broadcast network shows make it to a second season.
In the past 13 seasons (that's 1999-2000 through 2011-2012), 892 new primetime series have launched on the major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC and The CW). Of those, just 288 made it to a second season. That's a 32% survival rate. Don't believe us? Check out the hard data:
season | abc | cbs | fox | nbc | upn | wb | cw | total |
1999-2000 | 3/12 (25%) | 6/12 (50%) | 2/12 (17%) | 5/15 (33%) | 1/7 (14%) | 5/10 (50%) | | 22/68 (32%) |
2000-2001 | 5/12 (42%) | 4/10 (40%) | 4/12 (33%) | 5/17 (29%) | 2/8 (25%) | 3/7 (43%) | | 23/66 (35%) |
2001-2002 | 4/16 (25%) | 4/11 (36%) | 5/17 (29%) | 7/15 (47%) | 2/5 (40%) | 4/11 (36%) | | 26/75 (35%) |
2002-2003 | 7/21 (33%) | 5/12 (42%) | 4/17 (24%) | 8/17 (47%) | 2/6 (33%) | 5/13 (38%) | | 31/86 (36%) |
2003-2004 | 2/17 (12%) | 4/8 (50%) | 7/22 (32%) | 3/11 (27%) | 2/9 (22%) | 4/11 (36%) | | 22/78 (28%) |
2004-2005 | 9/21 (43%) | 3/11 (27%) | 6/17 (35%) | 6/20 (30%) | 2/8 (25%) | 2/7 (29%) | | 28/84 (33%) |
2005-2006 | 2/17 (12%) | 6/12 (50%) | 4/11 (36%) | 3/16 (19%) | 1/5 (20%) | 1/8 (13%) | | 17/69 (25%) |
2006-2007 | 7/27 (26%) | 4/10 (40%) | 3/14 (21%) | 6/17 (35%) | | | 2/4 (50%) | 22/72 (31%) |
2007-2008 | 9/21 (43%) | 3/11 (27%) | 3/11 (27%) | 4/15 (27%) | | | 2/8 (25%) | 21/66 (32%) |
2008-2009 | 6/17 (35%) | 2/8 (25%) | 5/10 (50%) | 3/17 (18%) | | | 1/8 (13%) | 17/60 (28%) |
2009-2010 | 8/20 (40%) | 4/8 (50%) | 4/8 (50%) | 6/13 (46%) | | | 2/8 (25%) | 24/57 (42%) |
2010-2011 | 3/16 (19%) | 3/10 (30%) | 3/10 (30%) | 3/17 (18%) | | | 1/3 (33%) | 13/56 (23%) |
2011-2012* | 6/14 (43%) | 3/7 (43%) | 4/11 (36%) | 7/17 (41%) | | | 2/6 (33%) | 22/55 (40%) |
total | 71/231 (31%) | 51/130 (39%) | 54/172 (31%) | 66/207 (32%) | 12/48 (25%) | 24/67 (36%) | 10/37 (27%) | 288/892 (32%) |
* does not include this summer's 15 newcomers as many of those fates are still in the air
That 32% survival rate is surprisingly universal as ABC, FOX and NBC are all on that baseline while CBS (39%) and The CW (27%) teeter on the opposite ends of the spectrum. We can also observe that no network has ever had better than a 50% survival rate in any given season. Likewise, we've seen both the worst (23% in 2010-2011) and the best (42% in 2009-2010) survival rates come to pass in recent years. (This past season's 40% rate will likely fall between 32%-35% once this summer's 15 newcomers are factored in.)
The takeaway here is this: with 47 series (and counting) due to premiere during the 2012-2013 season, history shows that only 15 will likely make it to a second season. So brace yourself, chances are the majority of the new shows you've added to your viewing schedule won't be back this time next year.
TOMORROW: Do shows that launch in September have a better chance of survival than any other month?
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[11/08/24 - 08:35 AM] ESPN Films' "Missing at Sea" to Premiere November 10 at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+ Directed and produced by award-winning filmmaker Nicole Noren, with reporting by ESPN's Sam Borden, the film tells the gripping story of Ivan Gjorgievski, who was swept out to sea and survived 18 harrowing hours in the Aegean.
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[11/08/24 - 08:21 AM] Nominations Announced for "The 67th Annual Grammy Awards" Topping the list of nominations are Beyoncé (11), Charli xcx (7), Billie Eilish (7), Kendrick Lamar (7), Post Malone (7), Sabrina Carpenter (6), Chappell Roan (6) and Taylor Swift (6).
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[11/07/24 - 01:17 PM] The CW Acquires "Bob Hearts Abishola" Repeats Look for a marathon of the first four episodes on Friday, November 15.
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[11/07/24 - 10:30 AM] CBS Orders Full Seasons of "Poppa's House" and "NCIS: Origins" According to VideoAmp and internal streaming data, with seven days of multiplatform viewing, "NCIS: Origins'" premiere has been seen by 9.0 million viewers and "Poppa's House" by 6.41 million viewers.
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[11/07/24 - 09:00 AM] HBO Original Comedy Special "Bill Maher: Is Anyone Else Seeing This?" Debuts in January The comedian, writer, and host of "Real Time with Bill Maher" will tape his special in front of a live audience at the CIBC Theater in Chicago, Illinois.
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[11/07/24 - 08:01 AM] First Season of NWSL on ION: 50 Matches, 53 Studio Shows, 130+ Hours of Content, 20.5 Million Unique Viewers Matches drew an average audience of 145,000 P2+ per game with a high of 234,000 on July 6 for the Orlando-Kansas City match.
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[11/07/24 - 07:01 AM] Video: Apple TV+ Reveals First Look at Third Season of "Sago Mini Friends" The five-episode season is a delightful nod to gratitude, featuring Harvey the floppy-eared dog and his best friends, Jinja the cat, Jack the rabbit and Robin the bird.
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[11/07/24 - 07:01 AM] Video: Prime Video Announces Premiere Date and Teaser Trailer for UK Original Movie "My Fault: London" Starring Asha Banks and Matthew Broome The new film will premiere exclusively on Prime Video in more than 240 countries and territories worldwide on February 13, 2025.
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[11/07/24 - 06:00 AM] Video: Paramount+ Reveals Official Trailer for the New Christmas Comedy Film "Dear Santa" The film is the story of a young boy (Robert Timothy Smith) who mails his Christmas wish list to Santa with one crucial spelling error, resulting in a devilish Jack Black's arrival to wreak havoc on the holidays.
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